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Eugen Tarnow

 

    "The inflow of guest workers is equal to half of all IT hires each year and fully two-thirds of annual hires of workers younger than 30"

    Eugen Tarnow  June 13 2016 03:56:56 PM
    To learn more about our consulting services or how ReduceMail Pro can help manage your company’s Lotus Notes email retention contact us at info@avabiz.com or call us at 1-646-825-9080.

    I was reading a piece in the New York Times about US IT workers writing up scripts for H-1 B recipients to replace themselves and found Hal Salzman quoted.  He is a professor at Rutgers.  I thought what he said in the article was incorrect so I decided to write him.  It turned out that he was quoted incorrectly.  

    Hal sent me a list of some of his research and it is quite shocking.

    Here it is:

    Background Papers – summary list (from Hal Salzman):

    http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3474CXX
    4 pgs overview; see appendix for list of articles on specific guestworker issues/topics

    short overview:
    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/stem-graduates-cant-find-jobs

    All credible research finds the same evidence about the STEM workforce: ample supply, stagnant wages and, by industry accounts, thousands of applicants for any advertised job. The real concern should be about the dim employment prospects for our best STEM graduates: The National Institutes of Health, for example, has developed a program to help new biomedical Ph.D.s find alternative careers in the face of “unattractive” job prospects in the field. Opportunities for engineers vary by the field and economic cycle – as oil exploration has increased, so has demand (and salaries) for petroleum engineers, resulting in a near tripling of petroleum engineering graduates. In contrast, average wages in the IT industry are the same as those that prevailed when Bill Clinton was president despite industry cries of a “shortage.” Overall, U.S. colleges produce twice the number of STEM graduates annually as find jobs in those fields.


    Background on history of current shortage claims
    Salzman, Hal (2013). What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce. Issues in Science and Technology, (Summer 2013), 58-67. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3JS9S2T
    http://www.issues.org/29.4/hal.html
    Why is the widely accepted view of shortage at odds with study after study that has found the U.S. science and engineering supply to be strong and improving? And why are policymakers and industry leaders offering proposals that go against this solid body of evidence?  This article examines the recent history of the "shortage" claims and implications for policy

    Detailed statistics and background
    Salzman, Hal. Statement of Hal Salzman: hearing on "Immigration Reforms Needed to Protect Skilled American Workers" submitted to the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, U.S. Senate, March 17, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3ZK5JC3
    http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/download/salzman-testimony
    Currently, U.S. colleges graduate far more scientists and engineers than find employment in those fields every year—about 200,000 more—while the IT industry fills as much as two-thirds of its entry-level and early-career positions with guestworkers. At the same time, IT wages have stagnated for over a decade. Current H-1B and L visa policies and the proposed changes that increase the supply of STEM guestworkers are likely to accelerate the already deteriorating career prospects for STEM graduates and workers. New provisions in the proposed Senate bill will also have detrimental impact on U.S. colleges and universities.

    Salzman, Hal & Lowell, B. Lindsay (2008). Making the Grade. Nature, 453(1 May 2008), 28-30. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3Q241WW
    Educational performance of U.S. and International students and workforce supply

    Salzman, Hal (2014). STEM Grads Are at a Loss. U.S. News & World Report, Sept 15(2014) http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T33B622G
    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/stem-graduates-cant-find-jobs

    All credible research finds the same evidence about the STEM workforce: ample supply, stagnant wages and, by industry accounts, thousands of applicants for any advertised job. The real concern should be about the dim employment prospects for our best STEM graduates: The National Institutes of Health, for example, has developed a program to help new biomedical Ph.D.s find alternative careers in the face of “unattractive” job prospects in the field. Opportunities for engineers vary by the field and economic cycle – as oil exploration has increased, so has demand (and salaries) for petroleum engineers, resulting in a near tripling of petroleum engineering graduates. In contrast, average wages in the IT industry are the same as those that prevailed when Bill Clinton was president despite industry cries of a “shortage.” Overall, U.S. colleges produce twice the number of STEM graduates annually as find jobs in those fields.

    The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage: How Guest Workers Lower US Wages
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/the-bogus-high-tech-worker-sho/
    .... this is a debate about America's policies for creating good jobs, strong technology and an innovation-based economy. We welcome immigrants and support an immigration policy that draws the best and the brightest and provides opportunity to newcomers. But policy should not be about targeting government giveaways to a few industries by supplying ever more guest workers when there is an ample domestic supply of qualified graduates and workers.

    We're Already Generating More Qualified Students Than Jobs
    Our analysis of the data finds that high-skill guest worker programs supply the preponderance of all new hires for the IT industry. The inflow of guest workers is equal to half of all IT hires each year and fully two-thirds of annual hires of workers younger than 30. Can it be a coincidence that wages in IT jobs have been stagnant for over a decade?

    Salzman, Hal & Kuehn, Daniel & Lowell, B. Lindsay (2013). Guestworkers in the High-Skill U.S. Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply, Employment, and Wage Trends. Report, April 24, 2013 http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T379469D
    http://www.epi.org/publication/current-proposed-high-skilled-guestworker/

    In 2011, the number of college-educated guestworkers under the age of 30 in IT was equal to two-thirds of all the 166,000 new college-educated IT job holders under the age of 30. At a time when Congress is proposing to dramatically increase the number of skilled guestworkers available to IT and other industries, it is important to consider the adverse impact of increasing the guestworker flow on U.S. college graduates just entering the workforce and on those in school making plans for their future.

    Need to fire up a Notes application - we can help!

    Eugen Tarnow  June 2 2016 01:48:34 PM
    OK so you moved away from Lotus Notes and you realize you need to fire up an old Notes application again to get the data.

    We can help!

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    Congratulations to Rainer Weiss for discovering gravity waves!

    Eugen Tarnow  February 11 2016 01:29:47 PM
    When I was an undergraduate at MIT, it was hard to get into a research group because as an undergraduate you are pretty useless!  

    The first group that accepted me was the one headed by Rainer Weiss, a professor that reminded me of Groucho Marx.  Instead of a cigar he had a pipe.  

    Rainer Weiss really cared about his students.  I found out that I was not suited for experimental physics after almost blowing up a container of liquid helium  a couple of times.  He became my advisor nevertheless and in the end I got to do some theoretical research and went on to do a PhD in physics.

    Back then Rainer Weiss proposed a way to detect gravity waves and kept trying to get the project going.  This was 35 years ago.  He did get it going and it was just announced that he succeeded.

    I can't think of anyone more deserving!

    We Make Reading Unnecessary

    Eugen Tarnow  February 5 2016 10:00:36 AM
    We at Avalon have helped audit Lotus Notes mail content for many years. Typically the mail was searched for keywords and then the legal department had to read all the memos that were found.

    But now they don't need to read anymore! We use the latest technology to process all those memos and give you a better picture of what is going on in just one page of words and graphs.

    When you're ready to take the next step in a "mass reading" project, call us at 646 825 9080 x1 or write us at sales@avabiz.com and we will assist you.

    After all, would you rather read 1,000,000 words or look at a graph?

    For fun I have appended a graph of a piece of literature you are very familiar with. What do you think it is?


    Image:We Make Reading Unnecessary



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    And we at Avalon do try to contribute to the US patent portfolio...








    IBM - hip?!

    Eugen Tarnow  November 10 2015 09:31:34 AM
    The pictures speak for themselves: the IBM Relay 2015 conference.  

    Image:IBM - hip?

    Image:IBM - hip?

    By Eugen Tarnow, Ph.D.

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    AvalonAnalytics.com

    Natural language processing of Lotus Notes mail

    Eugen Tarnow  September 10 2015 11:14:29 AM
    What is the difference between keyword searches and natural language processing of Lotus Notes mail?

    Keyword searches will identify memos with keywords in them, the context is identified by human readers.  The keyword selection and the human readers will interact until the best set of keywords are left, leaving a minimized amount to read.

    Natural language processing allows a programmer to identify memos with specified keywords and report on the context.

    Example:
    Suppose one wants to go through email from a pharmaceutical company related to drug X.  

    Keywords: One can perform a keyword search on the drug name, read a few of the memos and realize that there are significant side effects mentioned.  One would then perform a dual keyword search on memos containing both the drug name and "side effects".  Some more human reading would realize that pain is one of the side effects.  The new keyword search would then include the drug name and "pain".  A human reader would then classify all the memos according to what kind of pain was mentioned.  The effort might take weeks if there are a lot of memos.

    Natural language processing: The programmer would perform a keyword search on the drug name.  A distribution of common nouns mentioned in the selected memos would allow the programmer to identify the word "pain." A distribution of the words preceding "pain" would allow for a quick classification of the kinds of pain mentioned.  The effort could be a couple of hours!  A distribution of common adjectives and adverbs mentioned would allow the programmer to identify the word "excruciating" etc.  

    Summary:
    Keyword searches necessitate human scanning of full memos.  Natural language processing allows a programmer to read word distributions of all identified memos at the same time.

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    We also perform natural language processing of your Notes mail on a consulting basis.

    To learn more about our consulting services or how ReduceMail Pro can help manage your company’s Lotus Notes email retention contact us at
    info@avabiz.com or call us at 1-646-825-9080.

    And we at Avalon do try to contribute to the US patent portfolio...

    Sony Pictures: would the email have been more secure had it stayed in Lotus Notes and had it been archived?

    Eugen Tarnow  December 19 2014 02:07:30 PM
    One of the advantages of archiving email is that most of the email storage is removed from immediate view.  ReduceMail Pro archives email so that the majority of the archived content is not in the mailfiles themselves.  The archive mail can be retrieved from the mailfiles but it is typically a manual process.

    Would so much email at Sony Pictures been hacked if they had stayed with Lotus Notes and perhaps used ReduceMail Pro?  We hope not.

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    No way IRS relies on local desktops to store email

    Eugen Tarnow  June 16 2014 09:16:51 PM
    The claim in the media is that Lois Lerner lost her emails because of a crashing hard disk.  

    This does not seem believable.  

    The IRS surely stores all mail on servers, not on local desktops.  And there must be journaling systems that capture all incoming and outgoing emails in a separate place.

    Does anybody know whether the IRS still uses Lotus Notes or went over to Outlook?

    ReduceMail Pro now supports Notes V9.0.1

    Eugen Tarnow  February 20 2014 08:10:22 PM
    As Lotus Notes / IBM Mail keeps changing, ReduceMail Pro is the archiving system that will keep up with those changes! The latest ReduceMail Pro system is now supporting V9.0.1.  

    ReduceMail Pro has enterprise solutions to solve any issue related to email retention.

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    Archive product greatly decreases the time employees must spend culling emails for deletion. And our Audit and e-Discovery products make it possible to quickly and easily review and retrieve relevant emails from the many that are stored.

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      Compassionate Release system takes 5 month to develop - they should use Lotus Notes!

      Eugen Tarnow  May 23 2013 12:17:51 PM
      U.S. Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General came out with a report in April that shows that "compassionate release", a program that allows prisoners to go
       free within 18 months of their estimated death, is not working.  They made a suggestion to the Federal Bureau of Prisons to create an electronic workflow system to make
      the process faster.  The Prison bureau responded with a proposed date for a new system of September.  That is five months!

      Would such a system take any more than a couple weeks to develop using Lotus Notes?

      The
      ReduceMail Pro team is very excited give our full attention to all companies who use Notes mail.

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