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Eugen Tarnow

 

    "The inflow of guest workers is equal to half of all IT hires each year and fully two-thirds of annual hires of workers younger than 30"

    Eugen Tarnow  June 13 2016 03:56:56 PM
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    I was reading a piece in the New York Times about US IT workers writing up scripts for H-1 B recipients to replace themselves and found Hal Salzman quoted.  He is a professor at Rutgers.  I thought what he said in the article was incorrect so I decided to write him.  It turned out that he was quoted incorrectly.  

    Hal sent me a list of some of his research and it is quite shocking.

    Here it is:

    Background Papers – summary list (from Hal Salzman):

    http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3474CXX
    4 pgs overview; see appendix for list of articles on specific guestworker issues/topics

    short overview:
    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/stem-graduates-cant-find-jobs

    All credible research finds the same evidence about the STEM workforce: ample supply, stagnant wages and, by industry accounts, thousands of applicants for any advertised job. The real concern should be about the dim employment prospects for our best STEM graduates: The National Institutes of Health, for example, has developed a program to help new biomedical Ph.D.s find alternative careers in the face of “unattractive” job prospects in the field. Opportunities for engineers vary by the field and economic cycle – as oil exploration has increased, so has demand (and salaries) for petroleum engineers, resulting in a near tripling of petroleum engineering graduates. In contrast, average wages in the IT industry are the same as those that prevailed when Bill Clinton was president despite industry cries of a “shortage.” Overall, U.S. colleges produce twice the number of STEM graduates annually as find jobs in those fields.


    Background on history of current shortage claims
    Salzman, Hal (2013). What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce. Issues in Science and Technology, (Summer 2013), 58-67. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3JS9S2T
    http://www.issues.org/29.4/hal.html
    Why is the widely accepted view of shortage at odds with study after study that has found the U.S. science and engineering supply to be strong and improving? And why are policymakers and industry leaders offering proposals that go against this solid body of evidence?  This article examines the recent history of the "shortage" claims and implications for policy

    Detailed statistics and background
    Salzman, Hal. Statement of Hal Salzman: hearing on "Immigration Reforms Needed to Protect Skilled American Workers" submitted to the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, U.S. Senate, March 17, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3ZK5JC3
    http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/download/salzman-testimony
    Currently, U.S. colleges graduate far more scientists and engineers than find employment in those fields every year—about 200,000 more—while the IT industry fills as much as two-thirds of its entry-level and early-career positions with guestworkers. At the same time, IT wages have stagnated for over a decade. Current H-1B and L visa policies and the proposed changes that increase the supply of STEM guestworkers are likely to accelerate the already deteriorating career prospects for STEM graduates and workers. New provisions in the proposed Senate bill will also have detrimental impact on U.S. colleges and universities.

    Salzman, Hal & Lowell, B. Lindsay (2008). Making the Grade. Nature, 453(1 May 2008), 28-30. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3Q241WW
    Educational performance of U.S. and International students and workforce supply

    Salzman, Hal (2014). STEM Grads Are at a Loss. U.S. News & World Report, Sept 15(2014) http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T33B622G
    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2014/09/15/stem-graduates-cant-find-jobs

    All credible research finds the same evidence about the STEM workforce: ample supply, stagnant wages and, by industry accounts, thousands of applicants for any advertised job. The real concern should be about the dim employment prospects for our best STEM graduates: The National Institutes of Health, for example, has developed a program to help new biomedical Ph.D.s find alternative careers in the face of “unattractive” job prospects in the field. Opportunities for engineers vary by the field and economic cycle – as oil exploration has increased, so has demand (and salaries) for petroleum engineers, resulting in a near tripling of petroleum engineering graduates. In contrast, average wages in the IT industry are the same as those that prevailed when Bill Clinton was president despite industry cries of a “shortage.” Overall, U.S. colleges produce twice the number of STEM graduates annually as find jobs in those fields.

    The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage: How Guest Workers Lower US Wages
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/the-bogus-high-tech-worker-sho/
    .... this is a debate about America's policies for creating good jobs, strong technology and an innovation-based economy. We welcome immigrants and support an immigration policy that draws the best and the brightest and provides opportunity to newcomers. But policy should not be about targeting government giveaways to a few industries by supplying ever more guest workers when there is an ample domestic supply of qualified graduates and workers.

    We're Already Generating More Qualified Students Than Jobs
    Our analysis of the data finds that high-skill guest worker programs supply the preponderance of all new hires for the IT industry. The inflow of guest workers is equal to half of all IT hires each year and fully two-thirds of annual hires of workers younger than 30. Can it be a coincidence that wages in IT jobs have been stagnant for over a decade?

    Salzman, Hal & Kuehn, Daniel & Lowell, B. Lindsay (2013). Guestworkers in the High-Skill U.S. Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply, Employment, and Wage Trends. Report, April 24, 2013 http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T379469D
    http://www.epi.org/publication/current-proposed-high-skilled-guestworker/

    In 2011, the number of college-educated guestworkers under the age of 30 in IT was equal to two-thirds of all the 166,000 new college-educated IT job holders under the age of 30. At a time when Congress is proposing to dramatically increase the number of skilled guestworkers available to IT and other industries, it is important to consider the adverse impact of increasing the guestworker flow on U.S. college graduates just entering the workforce and on those in school making plans for their future.

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